Child Abduction: How Likely?

Sorry, but I think I'm suffering Garrido overload.

As a dad, I wonder how likely it is that my daughter could be kidnapped by a complete stranger . I certainly remember my own childhood in which we all walked to and from school, got together afterwards to play ball, or went hunting for snakes and crayfish in the woods. I'm sad to see that few kids are allowed to have this sort of independence anymore, and wonder how dangerous coming home from school by yourself really is.

Well...

115
number of children in the U.S. kidnapped in a single year


71,900,000
number of children in the U.S. in that same year

The year in question is 1999, the most recent nationwide statistic I could find on the number of U.S. children who were abducted by strangers (not family members) with intent to keep, harm or hold them for ransom. I'm not sure where the 40 million U.S. children figure comes from in that same source link. The 40 million link goes to a demographic display on Nation Master. The link I have provided is much more specific and accurate.

Note that this figure includes all children under 18 years of age, not just 6-17 year olds.

So, doing the math...

1 in 625,217
Odds of a child in the U.S. being abducted by a stranger


0.00016%
Probability of the same

For sake of comparison,

1 in 84
Odds of dying in a car accident


1 in 5,051
Odds of dying in a plane crash


1 in 340,733
Odds of being killed in a fireworks accident

So, it looks like my daughter's twice as unlikely to be kidnapped by a stranger as being killed in a freak fireworks accident. Maybe the Free Range Kids people are on to something here!

Disclaimer: I am not advocating doing clearly ill-advised or criminal things, such as leaving your children at home alone while you go on a vacation. Only you can ultimately decide what seems good for your children.